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In April, I wrote about the probability of secession talk if Obama won re-election.  For a variety of reasons, I never posted the piece.  Today, reading about the petitions to secede filed from 23 states I am drawn back to the topic.  The Texas petition now has around 40,000 signatures, so, for academic purposes, let us indulge the topic.

Then, I predicted that several states would quickly begin clamoring to secede from the federal union.  I also argued that if it actually took place, this time, secession would succeed.

The last time a state attempted to leave the union things did not go so well.  Predictably, many of the same states that tried it before are those most openly discussing secession.

With hindsight, the outcome of the American Civil War was never really in question.  The advantages in population, wealth, transportation, resources, and industry, make Northern victory seem predetermined.  Today…

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