Hockey Stick Curve

The southwestern section of Cook County, Illinois is a glacial esker. It seems a few years ago the area was covered in a thick slab of ice which is called a glacier. In fact, most of what we call the mid-west was under the same glacier which extended north to the North Pole. That’s a whole lot of ice. As the glaciers receded they scraped tons of rock and soil with them and as the ice melted the rocks and soil deposited in a hill referred to as the esker. Now, I’m pretty old but I don’t remember any one talking about the local glacier in my time. So the story about the esker must be fake news handed down for eons from generation to generation. Some genius must have written it down for us to study in grammar school.

We all know that a bowl of ice left out on the kitchen counter top will eventually turn to water. It seems that ice melts at temperatures above thirty-two degrees Fahrenheit. And so it seems that since ice in a bowl on the kitchen countertop is in an atmospheric temperature higher than thirty-two. The ice melts because of atmospheric warming caused by human intervention. The intervention being caused by a thing called a thermostat hanging on one of the interior walls of said atmosphere. If the bowl of ice drops the temperature lower than one can stand, then it is human nature for one to tweek the thermostat to raise the temp to compensate for the loss of comfort. How long do you think it took for the natives to light warming fires large enough to melt a twenty-foot thick glacier that extends from Chicago to the North Pole? The natives were burning fossil fuel and thus adding to the phenomenon of the ice melt. But did they have an effect on how fast the ice melted? Perhaps, but how big was the effect? Eventually, the ice melted and the only trace of it is in the esker it left behind. Just how much does history attribute to the Indians causing the glaciers to melt? Nada, zero, nothing, the story isn’t even believable so why be concerned about it?

# Ice Age. MYA. 5. Current Ice Age. (aka Quaternary Glaciation) ~ 3 to now. 4. Karoo Ice Age. ~ 350 to Andean-Saharan glaciation. ~ 460 to Sturtian/Marinoan glaciation. ~ 850 to Huronian glaciation. ~ 2400 to

Last night I watched the Presidential debate, or slug-fest-shouting-match between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Aside from listening to what Biden had to say about the virus which was the exact script of what Trump did to fix the problem, the only other thing that caught my attention was Biden’s diatribe about global warming which he stole from Obama. He really believes that man-made global warming will melt the glacial ice at the north and south poles. Just how much does history attribute to the Indians causing the glaciers to melt? And he is telling us that it is going to happen in our lifetime. Just think about all the high paying jobs that we will have if we just give up using fossil fuels. Better yet, imagine that you were in your gas burning chariot on the way to work one morning and the entire globe runs out of gas. We all come to a rolling halt in our tracks. Who would we call for help? The world is not ready to deal with that scenario because the alternative fuels are not in existence nor in anyone’s imagination as of today. Oh yeah we will have windmills to generate electricity and that can power our electric cars, or we’ll have solar power to generate electricity on cloudy days, and at night.

We are so far away from providing alternate fuels that it isn’t even imaginable. At the same time we still have plenty of oil in the ground to keep us going. When we finally reach the point where fossil fuels are no longer available and the costs go up we will figure out how to deal with the problem because we are smart enough to do it for money. By the way folks, even if we in the USA get educated overnight and begin to reduce our carbon emissions to reduce global warming, what will we do about China? I just watched video of automobile production in the world, and yes, China now makes more cars than any other country. They aren’t all electric either. So, I guess it will be absolutely necessary for us to elect Joe Biden so we can watch China use all of our gasoline while we pay for it in taxes, and personal sacrifices.

Just who is contributing to global warming?

Getting back to the subject of jobs, high paying jobs, what will they be? Just who is researching what the new energy sources will be? Most likely it is oil companies because when oil runs out they need another source. My guess is that we should be tapping into real solar power directly from old sol. The puny solar cells of today will not give us what we need, not even if we cover the entire surface of Earth with solar cells, with wind mills planted in-between. We might even have to go to the moon to find oil? Well er, except that there is no foliage there to convert into fossil fuel.

Do you want to do something about man made global warming? Kick China and India’s ass to cut their emissions. When they catch up to the USA we will be happy to do more.

The airlines have been severely curtailed since COVID struck the planet. Airplanes are a major contributor to air pollution and carbon emissions. The reduced need for airplanes has to have set back global warming by as much as ten degrees. Oh, forgive me but I forgot that we haven’t been able to measure any change in global temperature, and the only science we have is attributed to a paper published by Michael Mann on how the temperature of the planet has changed over the past fourteen hundred years. The curve looks like a hockey stick laying flat with the shovel pointed straight up. It caused a stir in the world of global warming. Mann based his findings on 29 years worth of data and in geological terms that is but a nanosecond of time. The blade on his hockey stick is but a mere blip on the world temperature curve. Imagine making an investment with your life savings based on a steep rise in stock prices believing that the rise will continue, and then in an instant the same curve drops into oblivion. Remember the earth was cold at one time and covered in ice, Then global warming happened and the ice melted but to this day no one can tell me how fast it melted or how many years it took to happen. I see Mann’s prediction of global temperatures much the same as I saw the guru’s prediction that Covid-19 deaths would be in the millions or billions. The predictions were based on the information on hand. Mann’s numbers are a drop in the bucket of Earth’s existence.

Finally, I wish you a happy future existence in the world of Green New Jobs based on government’s spending to convert us to clean renewable energy.

. . . and that’s all I want to say about that.

Escape

Some of you may have noticed that I didn’t post for a few days nor did I reply to comments. Last week I finally decided it was time to kick COVID down the road; I took a road trip to visit Wisconsin. Along the drive I began to notice yards signs for Biden/Harris. Not just real estate sized signs, but huge 4 feet by 6 feet signs. Being in farm territory the signs were big so people would notice. I was beginning to regret coming into such hostile territory when a Trump sign appeared, then another and another. I would say that Wisconsin is more for Biden. I also now know why we refer to them as cheese heads, and it’s not because of the Green Bay Packers either.

I stopped at a truck stop to relieve the pressure on my prostate and spotted a tall thin black man hawking tee shirts outside. The front of the shirt said “Biden Sucks”, the back of the shirt said “Nancy Swallows.” He was selling them like hot cakes. I resisted

Today I heard that our governor has declared Wisconsin out of bounds. Anyone entering Illinois from Wisconsin will have to self quarantine for fourteen days before making contact with the general population. What is a person to do? Sit in his car for two weeks? I say that decree is long past being effective because the COVID numbers are in decline. That announcement should have been declared on March first. That is what happens when we put the Governor in charge of protecting us. It is also an indicator of the guys ability to think rationally.

I found the people of Wisconsin in strict adherence with their state recommendations. They all wore masks, kept their distance and generally were friendly. The restaurants and bars were open for inside seating. The towns I visited were on lakes so most people wanted outdoor seating on the shoreline. Shops selling stuff had sanitizer at the entrances with signs asking people to please squirt some on your hands to kill any COVID you may have picked up at the last place you were in.

Tramping through tee shirt shops didn’t really turn me on and the only place I did get turned on was out of bounds for me, an art gallery. I saw two large oils that I would have popped for if I weren’t selling all my stuff to simplify.

Note the price difference. I thought it is hilarious.

To make my life easier, I self declared this a cheat weekend and KETO be damned. I ate stuff like a crazy person, bread, pastries, ice cream, and sugary fruits. Life is too short not to enjoy it. It was in direct opposition to my goal of losing the beer belly which I developed while enjoying life over the past twenty years. I hate my beer belly. It gets in the way of too many things, and since I can’t seem to keep food in my mouth lately the droppings always land on my belly and dirty a nice clean shirt.

There were not many people enjoying the lake on boats. I think because it is mid-September many of the boats have been pulled from the water already. The weather was ideal for water sports, in the mid-seventies, no wind, and continuous sun.

I woke up Saturday morning to find a Harvest Festival going on under my window. There was not a single warning sign anywhere about it, but the locals were already streaming in by 7:30 a.m. Everyone followed the rules. I stopped at the Lions booth to learn what they were selling: roasted corn and baked potato. Too bad I just had a huge breakfast.

One thing I found hugely obvious is the number of Mexican businesses in town; four restaurants, a western wear shop, smaller super mercados, a bar, and a barber shop that was open on Sunday all within two blocks on Main street. They have landed and are obviously not letting anybody get in the way of their making a better life for themselves.

The biggest mishap of this adventure was leaving the charger for my lap top at home. I was able to watch a single episode of my favorite series when the Mac died. That was really the main reason I didn’t post during the trip. It forced me to watch conventional TV, but the picture was not HD and I hated it. All my reading material is on the lap top, so I couldn’t read a book, I resorted to the Enquirer tabloid, but that only took thirty minutes to read cover to cover. I got sucked in by a headline declaring Michelle Obama was sick of Barrack and wanted to throw him off the roof. Inside, the story didn’t have anything harsh to say about the couple, In fact I thought they wasted the ink on it. I’m sure the Enquirer doesn’t give a rats ass about not delivering all they wanted was for me to drop the money for their tabloid, and they succeeded.

I sat in the quiet room on Saturday evening thinking it was only yesterday that I left home. It felt like a week ago. The getaway succeeded in taking my mind off the drone-like life I have been leading.

Oh yeah, the soy beans are yellow and the corn husks are beginning to shrivel like they are drying out too. Soon the bright green Deere harvesters will be smoking away in field after field stripping the ground of its summer output.

. . . and that is all I want to say about that.

Compare Trump to Biden

I haven’t paid much attention to either candidate yet, but when I do see something it resonates with me. Since I am a heavy Trump fan whenever I see a Biden commercial I listen carefully to determine how the two candidates differ.

Yesterday, I listened to Biden and his plan for fighting COVID-19. It is the same as Trump’s word for word. I think he was reading from the Centers for Disease Control website, wear a mask, social distance, don’t go out if you feel sick etc. Where Biden does deviate heavily from Trump is on taxes. Biden will certainly raise our taxes to the point we will be crying uncle. It is my opinion that the Federal Government is way too large and the currently over-spent budget of Trillions is a hundred times larger than it needs to be. When will we as Americans learn to fend for our selves? Why do we believe that Uncle can take care of us better than we can?

Both candidates are old and can experience a health problem at any second. If they do have a problem, which Vice Presidential candidate has the best chance of running the country? My confidence is in Mike Pence. He has shown considerable leadership as a former governor and as VP. His performance as leader of the COVID-19 Task Force has been commendable. He clearly has more experience in getting things done than does Kamala Harris.

More scary to me is that if Biden has a problem and continues to lead who will really be calling the shots behind the scenes? Another old guy like Bernie? Or worse yet some political contributor who will remain invisible to the rest of us.

I am amazed at how little experience a presidential candidate needs to have in order to run the world’s strongest country with so much money to control. Other than popularity and some organizational skill to get a political campaign up and running there is little else to help decide which candidate is the best. Since Trump now has almost four years of performance behind him he has shown me that he is a capable leader in both domestic and world affairs.

And that is all I want to say about that.

Day 48-SIP-The Three Roses of Padauk

Who is leading? If my recollection serves me correctly President Trump announced the COVID-19 Task Force Guidelines on March 16, 2020. Within forty-eight hours the Mayor of Frankfort issued the same guidelines under his name. Four days later on 20 March 2020 our State Governor issued his version of the same.

I began writing my Covid-19 diary on the 16 of March, the same day the president announced the guidelines. What I see here is a chain of command from the National level down to the local community, but the State lagged in making decisions. Could this lag also be the reason why Illinois has the most debt of all the States? Could it be that is the reason citizens are leaving the state as fast as they can? It is the reason that I have considered leaving many times, only to be sucked back by personal responsibilities?

Anyway, it is a beautiful sunny day in Illinois today, but a might on the chilly side at 46 degrees and it’s windy making it feel even cooler. The sun is making the plant life explode and life is returning from the deep winter sleep. Tulips bloom in abundance, the daffodils are already gone as are the magnolias. The grass is Irish green and the trees and shrubs are about half way open toward full leaf. As soon as I post this non-sense I’ll join many others on a walk along our bicycle path fully masked.

This morning I cleaned my shop as I do after completing a project successfully. My routine is to hang the new work in the place of honor with lighting for a few weeks or until I get tired of it and replace it with something different. In the meantime, I will begin a new piece with fewer elements which should be quicker to complete. This latest was supposed to be that project, but it evolved into one with one hundred pieces and short equaled forty days. My goal is to get ‘short’ down to seven days max. There is a lot of room for improvement ahead.

The Three Roses of Padauk

Day 19-Quarantine-Alone and Weary

While eating my KETO breakfast of cheese, bacon, a hard boiled egg and some green grapes from Chile I watched New York Governor Cuomo’s press conference on COVID-19. I was mildly surprised to hear him speak with intelligence for once. I have only heard him speak politically, and when he does that he speaks through his progressive ass.

He basically explained exactly what President Trump has been telling us about how it is necessary to understand the needs at each hospital and to direct resources to those in dire need and not to those that are merely asking. His explanation seemed to me to be much cleaner than that of Trump’s. Perhaps because he heard Trump’s explanation before. Cuomo’s problems are basically limited to those of New York City, and then the rest of the state. Trump’s problem covers all fifty states and every big city within them. Cuomo admitted that the problem is hard and not one he likes to be involved with.

While this is going on, I switched to a Sunday morning news panel and heard socialist panelists criticizing Trump’s handling of everything. “He lies all the time,” no, he changes the message based on new evidence. “He should have stopped traffic from China sooner.” Yes maybe he should have and you Mr/Ms reporter should have put your brain in gear sooner while learning to become a communist. It is no different on any other liberal news broadcast station, they are all spewing hate and negativity to convince the population that he is the wrong guy for the job, and anyone could do it better.

At the end, Cuomo spoke about the effect the Stay in Place policy is having on people. He rightly referred to it as Cabin Fever. Listing all the emotional and physical effects upon people who are being forced to live with their families full time. If this were a hundred years ago we wouldn’t have that problem because everyone in the family would be too busy working around the farm to keep things going, not playing video games or surfing the net for dumb stuff.

I never completed a course in statistics, but I learned enough about stats to know they are important. During Cuomo’s talk he explained a graph indicating that NY may’ve reached a peak of the deaths. The first question out of a reporter’s mouth was “can you predict when this will be over?” No, dummy, the next point may still be higher. Those who know a little bit about statistics may remember that the mathematicians will only call something a trend if there are seven points in a row that are all in the same direction. So even if Cuomo’s peak was at the pinnacle, no statistician would stick his neck out and make a prediction based on one point. The answer is we will know in a few days, seven to know for sure if this is a trend. If in two or  three days another point goes higher the answer is no we don’t know. What bothers me is the number of genius college educated people in this country who cannot understand the concept.

One thing I learned about data is that without statistics to interpret all you have are numbers. If you think you can predict the outcome of something based on one, two, or three numbers you are ill informed. I know from experience because I was  using a limited number testing process in my work and made wrong predictions daily. It wasn’t until I began to understand how statistics works did I have a Chinaman’s chance in hell to make progress in product development. When the light bulb finally went on above my head it occurred  to me that medical cures, drug efficacy, and medical procedures cannot be proven effective unless tested in sufficient numbers to be able to predict outcomes.

Politicians are not trained to understand the world of statistical proofs as an idea, nor is the American public. Therefore, when the reporter who barely knows how to wipe his ass asks a loaded question the politician deflects the response with a verbacious dialog intended to change the subject and confuse the question to end the discussion.

As far as cabin fever is concerned, I agree with Cuomo. We all suffer from it. While I folded my wash yesterday I began thinking about living alone. It is something I miss, but after being alone for ten months I am questioning whether I would ever be able to withstand living with someone again. I don’t mind visiting or visitors, but after the conversation is ended I want to go about my way again, alone. One day I miss being with a partner, and the next I cannot even think of it. Call it grief, call it being introverted, call it stupid, but the emotion exists as a real thing. Ask  yourself what you would do if the war was conventional and the enemy was shooting and dropping bombs? Would you risk going outside for a run, or a trip to the grocer? Most likely you would hunker down in the safest place you could find sit with your head between your knees, and your hands over your head and pray for it to end.