Regulatory Logic

My son in law sadly reported to me that he kissed his eighteen year old Honda van good bye. The van was still in good running condition and he wanted to keep it as a working truck. Since he is in the business of fixing air conditioners and furnaces he has opportunity to make a few bucks on the side. The company he works for provides him with a work truck, but they don’t allow him to use it for jobs not company assigned. Thus a handy vehicle with his tools loaded would be a great assistance.

The Honda began to alert him to problems with dashboard icons that warned of impending doom from air pollution devices. The Honda doctor wanted nearly two thousand dollars to fix the problem, but the van is worth much less than that. He was not in the mindset to spend that much money to repair a truck that might last another year before the next large expense occurs. The truck has over 210,000 miles on it’s odometer which is credible for a car these days.

The son-in-law called a junk dealer who gave him $500 bucks for it. The man hoisted the van onto his flatbed hauler and told him that he will remove and recycle the catalytic converter and then the van goes into the crusher. In the good old days backyard mechanics would disable these non-essential devices and sensors and continue running the van. Today, we have laws they stipulate with holding a license plate if the vehicle does not pass the yearly emission control test, no plate, no car.

Now here is my dilemma. My own Toyota is seventeen years old, has 182,000 miles on it, has a rustless body, the interior looks like it did when new, it has no dents, the paint still shines, and I still like it’s style and looks. Then why would I trade it for a car that is newer and doesn’t appeal to me? Because Uncle Sam has this thing about keeping air pure. I remember when driving in California years ago that the air seemed to be foggy, and the residents dismissed my complaint with “oh that’s only smog.” We see similar pictures of smoggy days in China, and hear stories about the government forbid driving cars on days when the Olympics were being held. Yet, the same government that withholds personal freedom and liberty of it’s citizens does not have regulations that require smog control devices on their cars. We, on the other hand, have some personal liberty and freedom, but are hampered by laws and regulations that really contradict everything our constitution stipulates. Since we claim to be a Nation of Laws and we try to mean that by enforcement our liberty and freedom are often limited. Why we even have two sets of justice, although that is not stipulated it is very clear that some people play by a different set of rules and regulations.

If I were a rich man, I would have new car every year, and a paid driver to haul my ass to the library, and the pharmacy once a month. I am not rich, but I am not poor, so I must provide my own transportation, and that means driving myself around in a car. When my dash board lights up I’ll have to move to a State that doesn’t require emission control testing.

When I was a teen my home town of Chicago had a public transportation system that allowed me to get around town for a nickel a ride. It was cheap, and easily accessible. No one had to walk more than eight city blocks to catch a streetcar, and the cars came by every fifteen minutes. Today, when I could use a system like that, the tracks are buried under asphalt and the streetcars are replaced by buses that come every hour. It is worse in the suburbs where transit systems are a dirty word, and the infinitely wise city planners don’t even provide sidewalks to link one neighborhood with another. The younger planners argue that we don’t need public transport any more because self-driving cars will replace the need for a personal transportation device, and the next day we read about someone getting killed in a self driving car accident.

About twenty years ago, I thought it would be cool to come back a hundred years from now t see how the world had changed. Currently, I am only fifteen years away from being able to remember what it was like a hundred years ago, and it ain’t pretty. I don’t imagine the world will look like it did in Star Wars or Star Trek. The flying car will still be grounded, people will still have to work, and they will still have to commute to a job on out dated and scarce transportation. I think a hundred years from now people will still be blogging about how much better it was in the “good old days.”

PSA-180920-Crystal Ball

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Back in the nineties I read a book titled Megatrends 2000 by John Naisbitt in which he foretold the future ten to twenty years ahead. The author did not have any unusual telepathic talent he merely watched for trends. He collected snippets of information about happenings from newspapers around the country. If a particular action appeared in many places across the country he saw it as a trend.

After having read the book, and led the life I can attest to the fact that Naisbitt’s predictions were highly accurate. A few weeks ago I told myself to look for a new book that would predict the next ten years. Things are moving so fast that quite frankly, I can’t keep up with them and I would venture that you have the same problem too. I haven’t found such a book, but I did receive a list of predictions from a friend. I believe all of them will come to fruition within the next twenty- thirty years. I only hope I am around to see them happen,

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1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor. Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your motor malfunction light goes on so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new motor.

2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by stations that  dispense electricity.  All companies install electrical recharging stations for their customers and employees. (The gas station goes away, but must be replaced by a charging station. Batteries and charging must improve exponentially for this to happen. Currently an electric car needs ten hours of charge time to charge fully.)

3. All major auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billion dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

4. Coal industries go away. Gasoline/oil companies go away.  Drilling for oil stops. (This one is hard to believe because all these cars need electricity and it has to be generated. Most likely we will use natural gas.)  

5. Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day and  then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it  and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. (This ones assumes that we have roofs made of solar collectors, and that the sun shines every day.)

5. A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums. (This one forgets about our car culture and car hobbyists who will continue to build their own cars.) 

6. The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle! In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.  What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next  5-10 years and, most people won’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again? Yet, digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law.  So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

7. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

8. UBER is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world! (This one assumes that there will be enough Uber drivers with cars willing to shuttle people around) 

9. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.

10. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. (What the heck is “Go” and who cares that a computer beat him?) 

11. In the U. S., young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of  IBM’s Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain. (This will be a good thing because with too many lawyers our society has become overly litigious, and our government divided by politicians who are lawyers trained to win at all costs while our system relies on compromise.)

12. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses. (Nurses don’t diagnose cancer, doctors do.)

13. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.

14. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans. (So people quit learning because the computer knows everything.Who then teaches the computer new stuff? Does the computer perform lab experiments to learn new facts?)

15. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance, and you can be productive while riding. The very young children of today will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car.

16. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

17. One point two million people die each year in car-accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will save a million lives worldwide each year. (This one assumes that sensors and computers in the cars are better than those of a human being.)

18. Most car companies will doubtless go bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

19. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla. (Engineers fear only layoffs due to a lack of need. Electrical cars have simple drive trains, but more complicated controls, sensors, and computers.)  

20. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear. (accidents will never disappear completely)

21. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood. (If you can work while you commute, why go to the office at all? Work from home.)

22. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. (People will step into traffic while looking at their personal work modules because they can’t hear the cars.)

23. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. (This will require homes that have solar roofs, streets that are solar collectors, and vehicles that can pick up electricity from the road.)

24. Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue – technology will take care of that strategy. (Low cost solar systems for the home which can compete with the electric companies will be needed to make this happen.)

25. Health: The Tricorder X will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.  It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. (This dreamer has never had to experience an MRI, PET scan, Ultrasound, or colonoscopy test to believe a phone can detect your problems.)

WELCOME TO TOMORROW ! ! !

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It is only natural for me to be skeptical about these predictions because many of them rely not on technology, but rather on acceptance by humans to implement. Acceptance will evolve and shift culture toward these bold inventions. I predict they will take an additional ten-twenty years to be accepted by the public.

 

Send Me A Pizza

 
Hello! Is this Gordon’s Pizza?

No sir – it’s Google Pizza.

I must have dialed a wrong number.  Sorry.



No sir – Google bought Gordon’s Pizza last month.



OK.  I would like to order a pizza.

Do you want your usual, sir?

My usual – you know me?

According to our caller ID data sheet, the last 12 times you called
you ordered an extra-large pizza with three cheeses – sausage –
pepperoni –  mushrooms and meat balls on a thick crust.


 

OK – that’s what I want .

May I suggest that this time you order a pizza with ricotta – arugula
sun-dried tomatoes and olives on a whole wheat, gluten free, thin
crust?

What?  I detest vegetables.

Your cholesterol is not good, sir.

 

 

 

How do you know?

 

 

 

Well, we cross-referenced your home phone number with your medical
records. We have the result of your blood tests for the last 7 years.



Okay, but I do not want your rotten vegetable pizza!   I already take
medication for my cholesterol.



Excuse me sir, but you have not taken your medication regularly.
According to our database, you only purchased a box of 30 cholesterol
tablets once, at Drugsale  Network, 4 months ago.

 

I bought more from another drugstore.

That doesn’t show on your credit card statement.



I paid in cash.

But you did not withdraw enough cash according to your bank statement.



I have other sources of cash.

That doesn’t show on your last tax return unless you bought them using
an undeclared income source, which is against the law.

I’m sorry, sir, we use such information only with the sole intention
of helping you.

Enough already!  I’m sick to death of Google – Facebook – Twitter –
WhatsApp and all the others!!   I’m going to an island without
internet – cable  TV – where there is no cell phone service and no one
to watch me or spy on me !!



I understand sir – but you need to renew your passport first.  It
expired 6 weeks ago